Statistics Canada keeps records and publishes the number of objects with the foundation laid at the beginning of the month. The data is an index calculated in thousands of new construction sites opened over the previous 30 days.
The number of sites at the foundation stage is a leading indicator of the real estate market, which is closely related to business sentiment and consumer expectations. The companies that have made decisions about the direction of investment have made their own analysis of the market needs and the situation in the economy, so the statistical authorities suggest relying on their forecast.
The construction start index is considered to be simple and reliable leading an indicator due to the lack of formulas, averages and weights, since it is based on a simple summation of objects that are actually being built.
The disadvantages of statistics include the lack of ranking of objects by type of houses, which makes it difficult to assess the increase or decline that occurred under the decline or growth of civil facilities or business construction.
The same applies to the cost of housing under construction: segmentation into elite and budget homes could help determine the direction of the consumer boom. The demand generated by the middle class, or construction under state programs, accurately characterize the current state of the economy.
Frequency, time and format of publishing Housing Starts
The construction start index is published before the 10th day of each month at 8: 15 EST (16: 15 Moscow time). Given the importance of the indicator, economic calendars assign it two points on a three-point rating scale.
Before the data is released, traders have access to a preliminary forecast and the previous value of the indicator.
The influence of the Housing Starts indicator on the foreign exchange and stock market
The output of Housing Starts directly affects the course Canadian dollar and has a deferred effect on the stock index of the Toronto Stock Exchange, since it is published before its opening.
Traders and investors are watching the change in the actual indicator of construction sites and its difference with the forecast. Growth and positive divergence (better than expected) causes strengthening currencies and stock purchases, while the divergence is worse than the market or the decline in construction-reduce the exchange rate and negatively affect stock indices.