The Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom separately keeps records of export-import operations with countries outside the Eurozone.
The Non-Eu Trade Balance indicator is calculated according to the mathematical principle applied to any trade balance: export volumes minus import volumes. A negative value indicates a deficit, a positive value indicates a developed economy that can meet domestic needs and earn money from external ones.
The Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom takes data and prices on moved goods from customs declarations. Part of indicators include both actually delivered goods and credit transactions without payment, as well as prepayment for goods not imported or not shipped.
According to statistics, trade with non-EU countries has increased significantly over the second decade of the XXI century. The jump occurred in 2012 and 2014, after which the turnover grew smoothly, along with an increase in the deficit (imports far exceed exports).
Recently, the trade balance is inferior in statistical significance to the indicator of capital movement on trade accounts, when the efficiency of the country's economy is assessed by the number of attracted and external investments. The method is justified by the globalization of the economy, but as recent history shows, a return to protectionism and the tactics of trade wars can never be ruled out.
Frequency, time and format of publication of the Non-Eu Trade Balance indicator
Data on the trade balance is released on the 9th-11th of each month, time of publication is 4: 30 GMT (8: 30 Moscow time). The values are presented in billions of pounds and represent a negative number (deficit). The significance of the indicator is two points out of three on the scale calendar of economic events.
The impact of the Non-Eu Trade Balance indicator on the stock market and the Forex currency market
The indicator has an average impact on the markets, but with the UK leaving the EU in 2019, it may gain more weight.
Investors pay attention to the change in the components of import and export. The growth of the first value indicates an increase in consumption in the country, predicting inflationary risks, while the volume of exports characterizes the positive dynamics of national production. An increase in the latter component leads to stimulating purchases on the stock market.
Currency speculators estimate the balance sheet deficit as a strengthening of the pound while reducing the deficit due to an increase in the cost of credit instruments.
In the short term, due to the specifics of the exit time before the opening of the London Stock Exchange, the indicator may cause a surge volatility in currencies GBP and EUR, and gap (price gap) on European stock exchanges and derivatives.